PUMP PRICE PANIC - Inside the 48-hour scramble that followed Tinubu’s 15 % fuel import tax—and the quiet phone call that calmed the market.

The WhatsApp message hit every major oil-marketers’ group at 21:47 on Friday: “Breaking: 15 % import tariff on PMS/diesel signed—effective immediately.” Within minutes, depot managers in Apapa began forwarding the same three-word question:
“Price go up?” By dawn, panic had spilled onto the streets. Motorists queued nose-to-tail outside NNPC stations in Ikeja; black-market boys hiked jerry-can prices 12 % overnight; and one frantic Lagos ride-hail driver live-streamed himself topping up at N1,030/litre, shouting, “Tinubu wan finish us!”

Yet before the first bribe changed hands at a fuel gate, a quieter call was placed from the 14th floor of the Union Marble House in Victoria Island. On the line: Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, and Mele Kyari, group CEO of the state-owned NNPC. According to two aides briefed on the conversation, Dangote gave a single assurance: “We will hold the line. No price change at our gantry.”

That promise—never put in writing—now underpins the federal government’s gamble to protect domestic refining without triggering a pump-price explosion.

1. THE SLEEPER CLAUSE THAT WOKE THE MARKET

The 15 % ad-valorem duty was approved by President Tinubu on 21 October, but kept under seal for ten days to allow cargoes already at sea to berth without penalty . Importers only learnt of it on Friday night when NMDPRA circulated a “discharge clearance” memo: no tanker leaves the port until a 15 % CIF invoice is stamped by the Federal Inland Revenue Service.

Government officials argue the levy is “corrective, not revenue-driven”, designed to add ₦99.72/litre to landed cost while keeping Lagos pump prices “in the N964 band”—still below regional peers.

Market reaction was instant:
- Landing cost for imported petrol jumped from ₦829 to ₦954/litre.
- Independent marketers halted new orders, citing “negative margin”.
- Spot cargoes scheduled for Lome diverted to Cotonou, traders told *Argus*.

2. DANGOTE’S HIGH-STAKES GAMBIT

At 07:30 Saturday, Dangote Group issued a two-line statement: “We assure Nigerians that fuel prices will remain stable despite the 15 % import tariff.” Behind the scenes, the refinery had already cut its gantry price to N820/litre—₦25 below last week’s national average—offsetting the tariff shock with lower crude feedstock costs sourced under the new naira-for-crude deal. A senior Dangote executive (asked not to be named) said the move “deliberately sacrifices margin” to starve competitors of volume and force a permanent demand shift to local refining. “We can afford to bleed for six months. Importers can’t bleed for six weeks,” the official boasted.

3. NNPC—BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

State-owned NNPC, still the supplier of last resort, reduced its retail price to ₦945/litre on Sunday, down from ₦955 — a token cut meant to signal price calm while masking mounting subsidy on imported stock now landing at ₦954. Insiders say the corporation has requested a “price modulation” grant of ₦75 billion from the finance ministry to cover the gap—money not yet appropriated in the 2025 budget.

4. SMALL MARKETERS—THE FIRST CASUALTIES

At Eterna depot, Apapa, only two trucks loaded between Friday night and Monday morning, down from the usual 60-plus. Mrs. Ngozi Ezeh, an independent marketer with five stations in Anambra, has laid off 22 attendants since Saturday: “If I buy at ₦950 and sell at ₦970, I lose ₦8 after expenses. I’d rather lock the gates.”

5. CONSUMERS—HOARDING, RUMOURS, PRAYER

Panic buying drained 40 % of Lagos retail stock over the weekend, according to NMDPRA surveillance. WhatsApp rumours claimed Dangote would shut the refinery for “annual turnaround”, sending jerry-can prices to ₦600 per 4-litre in Iyana-Ipaja—triple the Monday average.

By press time, queues had shortened after Dangote loaded 450 trucks overnight, but black-market rates still hover at ₦1,050/litre—a ₦85 premium to official pump price.

6. THE BIG PICTURE—PROTECTIONISM VS. PUMP SHOCK

Government officials insist the tariff “is not a tax grab” but a strategic shield for the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery and modular plants in Edo and Rivers. Yet petroleum economists warn domestic output is still 30 % below national demand; cutting imports too fast could ignite scarcity and rampant cross-border smuggling. Victor Thomas, MD of marine-services firm Kach, predicts “a 60 % drop in coastal deliveries” within 90 days, starving NPA and NIMASA of port dues and costing thousands of stevedore jobs.

7. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

- 30-day transition window: Cargoes that sailed before 21 Oct berth tariff-free.
- Dangote’s next gantry price bulletin, due Friday, will signal whether the ₦820/litre offer is sustainable or a loss-leader.
- Finance ministry must decide on NNPC’s ₦75 billion subsidy request—a choice between fiscal prudence and social peace.

BOTTOM LINE

For now, Dangote’s promise—and NNPC’s subsidy IOU—have capped pump prices, but the arithmetic is brutal: if imported fuel stays at ₦954 and local supply slips, the only safety valve is Treasury cash the country doesn’t have. As one depot manager told me while watching trucks roll out at dawn: “We’re driving on borrowed time—and borrowed litres.”

This has been The Red Hot Report from Pepper-Room. The news that bears it all.

www.pepperroom.com.ng #pepperroomnews #pepperroomng #pepperroom